Russian shelling of the Chechen capital, Grozny, was of such bacchanalian scale that it was virtually razed to the ground, after urban combat comparable to the Battle of Stalingrad. The Committee of Soldiers Mothers puts the death toll from this phase of war at 14,000, double the official estimate. The second Chechen war (1999-2009) eventually produced a Russian victory but at enormous cost in human life. Estimates of civilian deaths range from 30,000 to 100,000 killed. Estimates of Russian losses range from the officially recorded 5,732 to 14,000 dead. The first Chechen war (1994-1996) saw Russian forces humiliated by the Chechen separatists. How do we account for what appears to be a dismal Russian performance on the battlefield? In truth, had people bothered to look, there were significant clues to be yielded from analysis of Russia’s military misadventures over the past 30 years. Indeed, social media is literally swimming with images of captured Russian MRAPs, tanks of every description, an exotic variety of supply trucks, and captured Russian soldiers. Ukrainian estimates claim Russian losses include: 290 tanks, 999 armoured personnel carriers, 46 planes and 68 attack helicopters, as well as vast numbers of vehicles and artillery pieces. This in addition to the civilian resisters who have become an iconic part of the Ukrainian response, and may be crucial, if and when an insurgency proper begins. In addition, up to 15,000 others from around Europe have signed up to join the fight. To add to Putin’s woes, upwards of 140,000 Ukrainians have returned to defend their country (with more arriving all the time). By further comparison, the United States lost a total of 4,500 troops in Iraq over the period 2003 to 2011. In Afghanistan, for example, during the decade of occupation in the 1980s, Soviet forces lost about 15,000 personnel. John O'Brennan: 'Security analysts are in no doubt that the Olympian corruption practised by Putin’s kleptocrats seeped, over time, into military procurement, with hugely significant consequences for the performance of Russian forces in the field in Ukraine.'Įven a loss of 5,000 troops over the first two weeks would represent a staggering loss for Russia. Ukraine puts the number already at above 11,000 Russian dead. Both sides have an incentive to publicise what the other has lost within the information war which is running in tandem with battlefield hostilities.īut the evidence from independent security analysts suggest Russia has almost certainly lost thousands of troops from an active invasion force of about 200,000. Russia had 4,173 total aircraft, as against just 318 for Ukraine, 772 fighter aircraft compared to just 69 available to Ukraine, and 544 attack helicopters, against 34 for Ukraine.Įstimates of battlefield losses must be taken with a pinch of salt. Nowhere was the stark difference in capacity more evident, however, that in airpower. Russia had more than 12,000 tanks, compared to just 2,500 for Ukraine, and more than 30,000 armoured vehicles compared to 12,000 for Ukraine. Coming into the war, Russia could boast of at least 850,000 active personnel, against just 200,000 in active service in Ukraine.
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